"FALSE CONSENSUS EFFECT"

READ TIME: 4.19mins

Have you ever been so sure about an idea that it felt like a guaranteed win?

I’m sure you’ve heard a story like this before: someone has a “brilliant” idea for a new product, dives in with absolute certainty, and pours time, money, and energy into making it a reality.

It’s an easy trap to fall into. When we’re excited about something, it’s tempting to assume others will feel the same way. It’s a little thing called the False Consensus Effect which makes us believe our preferences, ideas, and opinions are “normal”.

In other words, we see our own perspective as the default setting, and everyone else… well, surely, they see things just like we do – or at least they should.

Think about that one friend or family member whose certain they’ve cracked the code of life – they’ll tell know the correct way to load a dishwasher, the perfect time to leave for the airport, and the only way to season a cast-iron skillet

They’re so convinced they’re right that they’ll argue passionately with anyone who dares to disagree… as if admitting another perspective would somehow cause the Earth to wobble on its axis.

That’s the False Consensus Effect at work – the unintentional assumption that our perspective is shared by others.

But in reality, this mindset can set us up for a hard landing.

When we’re so wrapped up in our own perspective, we can miss out on seeing things from other angles causing blind spots that can lead to big missteps.

The Psychology Behind Believing You're Always Right

“We see the world not as it is, but as we are.” — Anaïs Nin

Our brains are lazy little machines, especially when it comes to social interactions. They love shortcuts.

The False Consensus Effect is one of those shortcuts that is like a kind of mental “autopilot” that helps you navigate life by assuming others see things the same way you do… simply because it easier and comforting to do so.

It simplifies decision-making and social interactions without much second-guessing, giving you a cozy belief that your perspective is the “norm.” And who doesn’t want that?

This bias is driven by social validation – our brain’s need to feel accepted and “normal” – and reinforced with the confirmation bias – our brain’s tendency to cherry-pick information that confirms our existing views and surround ourselves with people who, conveniently, think just like us.

Together, they create a feedback loop where we keep building this sense of “normal” based entirely on our own preferences… even if your “normal” is loving pineapple on pizza or thinking karaoke on a first date is a great idea.

The thing is, the more we lean on these shortcuts, the more our sense of reality gets skewed and why we’re often blindsided when we run into someone with a different opinion or behaviour.

That jarring feeling comes from having your assumptions challenged – and no one likes that.

So, we continue to keep ourselves in our cozy little loop.

Where Pepsi went wrong…

In 2017, Pepsi launched their “Live for Now Moments” ad – though “launched” might be generous, considering it was pulled almost as fast as it went live.

The ad featured Kendall Jenner ditching a photo shoot to join a protest in the street. After handing a can of Pepsi to a police officer, everyone magically forgets their issues, and suddenly, all’s well with the world. World peace? Achieved. Thanks, Pepsi.

Timing-wise, this ad couldn’t have hit at a worse moment. Real-life protests and social movements like Black Lives Matter were intensifying, and people were in the streets over deeply important issues.

But Pepsi’s ad team seemed to think a bubbly, feel-good ad with a can of soda could somehow capture that intensity and bring everyone together.

Safe to say, they couldn’t have been MORE wrong. Predictably, the ad didn’t go over well.

People quickly labelled it as tone-deaf and out of touch, a clueless attempt to capitalise on social justice. Outrage poured in, critics slammed it as opportunistic, and social media didn’t hold back with the memes and ridicule… of both Pepsi AND Jenner.

Within 24 hours, Pepsi pulled the ad and issued a public apology.

It’s a textbook case of the False Consensus Effect… assuming others would see the ad’s message as well-intentioned, the way the Pepsi team did.

It showed that when brands misread their audience, they don’t just miss the mark – they can end up doing a lot of damage… not just to the brand but to their bottom line. It’s reported that the ad’s production cost between $2 million and $5 million – down the drain.

The lesson? Just because something sounds like a winner in the brainstorming session, or makes perfect sense in the boardroom, doesn’t mean it’ll fly with real people in the real world.

How can YOUR marketing Avoid Falling into the False Consensus Effect Trap?

💸 CREATE MULTIPLE AUDIENCE SEGMENTS

Since the False Consensus Effect can lead to one-size-fits-all messaging, marketers should aim to identify specific audience segments and tailor messages to each group’s unique preferences, values, and motivations.

Dynamic content can further personalise experiences by adjusting emails, ads, or landing pages in real-time based on user behaviour, making each customer feel understood and valued.

For example, younger consumers might respond to humour and pop culture, while professionals might prefer thought leadership and direct benefits.

💸 SEPARATE PERSONAL BIAS FROM DATA-DRIVEN DECISION

Invest in solid market research through surveys, focus groups, and social listening to uncover your audience’s genuine opinions, behaviours, and needs. And/or consider bringing in outside experts who can provide an objective viewpoint and spot any blind spots you might have missed.

By relying on both data and fresh perspectives, you’ll build campaigns that genuinely connect with your audience and avoid the costly misstep of assuming “they’ll love it” just because you do.

Take Starbucks as a cautionary tale. They entered the Australian market in 2000 and quickly expanded to 87 stores by 2008. But they didn’t consider Australia’s unique coffee culture, which favours local cafés and espresso-based drinks.

Assuming Aussies would love it because Americans do… they missed the mark completely. The oversight cost Starbucks dearly – $105 million in losses in the first seven years alone

💸 LEVERAGE SOCIAL PROOF

Don’t just assume your audience will see the value in your product… show them through social proof. Use testimonials, case studies, or user-generated content to highlight how others benefit from your offering. This builds credibility and helps connect with those who might see things differently, bridging the gap between your assumptions and their real perceptions.

At the end of the day, just because you like something doesn’t mean others will.

The False Consensus Effect has a way of narrowing our vision, making it easy to overlook crucial feedback, different perspectives, and, ultimately, what the audience actually wants.

Sometimes, the biggest lesson is realising that our excitement doesn’t always translate… and that the most valuable insights often come from stepping outside our own bubble and testing our ideas against reality.

P.S. Want to find out how to influence YOUR customer’s buying decisions so you can drive more sales? Here’s how I can help:

Book a Happy Hour Session to get an outside perspective and unbiased feedback… to nudge you in the right direction.
Lock in a VIP Day to get you where you want to be faster.

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THE fACE BEHIND “TAKE MY MONEY”

Hi! I'm Jodi Lee Duncan

I’m a dog loving, tea drinking extraordinaire, and the ultimate geek when it comes to all thing’s marketing, consumer behaviour and buyer psychology.

With a love for storytelling, a heart for creativity, and a brain for science I’m on a mission to help people like you think like their customer so you can create marketing that connects, influences and drives action… in your favour.

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